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Path Solver: Multi-Hop Prediction Market Paths Explained

Markets don't exist in isolation — they connect through shared outcomes. The Path Solver models that network and finds routes where combined payouts cover combined costs.

up to 5 hops <50ms solve time 112 paths/min
01 — The graph

Markets as a graph

Prediction markets are connected. The outcome of one market can imply the outcome of another — a BTC up-or-down market, a weekly range market, and a monthly trend market all depend on overlapping events.

Vantex models this as a market graph: markets are nodes, and the payout relationships between them are edges. The graph is directional — a payout flows one way, from one market to another.

Nodes

Markets

Each tradable event — a YES/NO market on Polymarket or Kalshi, an event contract, a range market.

Edges

Payouts

Directed connections representing how the resolution of one market pays out relative to another.

Paths

Routes

Multi-hop sequences through complementary markets where the combined payouts can cover the combined entry cost.

02 — Guaranteed paths

What a payout-guaranteed path is

Some markets are complementary: whatever the event outcome, at least one leg of the combination pays out. Buy the right YES/NO combinations across connected markets and the payout structure is what makes the path payout-guaranteed.

That doesn't mean it's free money. The guarantee is about the payout structure — the cost of entry, the spread you pay, and the timing of resolutions all determine whether the path is actually worth executing.

ModelDirectional network over market graph
GuaranteeCombined payouts cover combined cost by construction
Real-world checkSpreads, timing, and fees still apply
03 — Depth and speed

How deep and how fast

The solver searches the graph in real time. Paths can span up to 5 hops, and each solve completes in under 50ms. At that cadence the system surfaces roughly 112 paths per minute.

Speed matters because path edges decay — prices move as other traders see the same structure. A path found at 14:31:01 may not exist at 14:31:11.

SOL·DOWN·5m graph solver: 3-hop path A→B→C found → +2.8¢ edge
BTC·RANGE·WEEK graph solver: 4-hop path X→Y→Z→W found → +1.9¢ edge
04 — Using it

How to use it: you verify and execute

The Path Solver hands you a route — the markets, the legs, the combined cost, and the projected edge. It does not place orders.

Every outcome the solver references is verified on-chain — the model's audit trail is the settlement record itself.

FAQ — Frequently asked questions
Questions & answers
What is a market graph?
A model where markets are nodes and the payouts between them are edges. Vantex's Path Solver treats the whole network as a directional graph.
What is a payout-guaranteed path?
A route through complementary markets — such as YES/NO combinations — where the combined payouts cover the total cost of entry.
How deep can paths go?
Up to 5 hops.
How fast is the solver?
Under 50ms per solve; roughly 112 paths are surfaced per minute.
What are the risks?
Spreads, resolution timing, and fees can all erode an edge. Always verify the path and the markets before executing.
How does Vantex solve paths?
With a directional network model running in real time, and outcomes are verified on-chain.

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